Wednesday, January 13, 2010

My Thoughts

Scientific Hypothesis:

How wealthy a country or a city-state can become before it falls prey to an aggressive neighbor? The ability to accumulate resources has drastically been enhanced once human agricultural innovations became possible. If you have the capacity to store and preserve resources for future you become an object of a violent takeover. To avoid becoming conquered and losing your resources and your women you begin to raise armies for defense and perhaps for conquering smaller less wealthy neighbors. In essence, a city-state cannot become too wealthy and too dematerialized because it can eventually become conquered by a small militarized neighbor with much less resources. To test the hypothesis assume that we are calculating fractions represented by GDP per capita and army servicemen per capita for a particular city-state. If the gross domestic product is high and number of servicemen per capita is small the fraction is high. If the gross domestic product is low and number of servicemen per capita is high the fraction is low. How high and low can the ratios get before the city-state in question is wiped out? Let us call city-states with high ratios (where numerator is high and denominator is low) a progressive wealthy pacifists. Let us also call city-states with low ratios aggressor nations. Is it valid to assume that when you have too much stuff and too little army you are a subject for a hostile takeover? Is it also valid to assume that when you have too little stuff and too much army you are subject to a possible disbandment of the army (due to the fact that the army needs resources to operate)? By computing the ratios you can tell how low and how high they can realistically get. You can also see how one country stacks up with others. Is it a good idea to require all present nations to have the same wealth-military ratio? What can realistically happen if something like that occurs in real life? Is it valid to assume that the warfare cannot happen? Can a computer program generate such a scenario? Can a computer program accurately predict downfall of city-states if the wealth-military ratio for all of them are computed. How do resources get transferred and how they help and break the back of nations who acquire them?

Formula:

GDP per capita / army servicemen per capita = GDP / # of army servicemen


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Figuring out what drives stock market values:

Is it reasonable to assume that the values of S&P500 and weather temperatures are positively correlated? What about trading volume for the day and the average temperature during trading time of the day? If high daily temperatures during the trading hours compel people to seek comforts of home is it reasonable to expect them to trade equity (sell or buy) during those hours? Let us find correlation between trading volume for a particular trading day and the day’s corresponding average daily temperature. What to happen to trading volume on Monday when Saturday and Sunday orders go through? What if those days were significantly hotter than average?
Estimate the coefficient of correlation between the following variables:
A. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of computers purchased that week/month/quarter
B. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of internet connections added that week/month/quarter
C. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of blackouts/power outages/power shortages that week/month/quarter
D. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and energy consumed by the consumer sector that week/month/quarter
E. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and energy consumed by the business sector that week/month/quarter
F. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of people in the labor force
G. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of people out of the labor force
H. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of military escalations in the world that quarter registered by the TV media
I. Annual trading volume and total # of financial advisors employed that year between 2000 and 2008
J. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of commercials featuring brokerage firms on TV and radio that week/month/quarter
K. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of business-related books sold that week/month/quarter
L. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and # of money made selling business-related literature that week/month/quarter
M. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and average daily (when equity markets open) temperature that week/month/quarter
N. Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly trading volume and average daily (all days) temperature that week/month/quarter
Explanation as to why these calculations are needed:
Think about it… When customers get connected to the internet though their local ISP they are more likely to start trading equity. When it becomes hotter during the day before markets close a person may spend more time in his or his friends home and be compelled to start trading from his brokerage account to kill time. When we purchase new computers we inadvertently purchase internet service and start utilizing online brokerage firms. We drive up our energy costs by using the computer (watching resource-consuming streaming videos, music, reading news and books, networking and chatting). We may also spend much time on the computer researching and analyzing stocks. The more people in the labor force the more money they collectively earn and have. The money they earn can be invested in stocks. The more financial advisors there are in any given year the more promotional messages and chats/talk people can be exposed to during their daily life. Commercial and investment literature can increase individual’s desire to invest more and more often.


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Find associations between number of credits received for taking business related courses in college/university and individual’s financial success, prosperity, measures of health, well-being, and happiness. What about associations between credits received for liberal arts courses, science courses, engineering courses, computer courses and individual’s success in life, measures of health and prosperity? Can taking courses related to finance and investing turn you into a more successful businessman and investor? Can taking other types of courses pertaining to liberal arts, science, engineering do the same? Can taking courses in medicine or science lead to improvement in physical health and mental health? Can focusing on medical courses in college (by this I mean ratio of medical courses to non-medical courses taken in college or school) improve one’s health and well-being? Can it make you richer?
Amount of money spent on purchasing books, magazines, and newspapers that are business oriented and amount of money invested in stocks, net worth? Can buying and reading books, magazines, and newspapers about investing compel you to invest in stocks more readily?
Number of hours spent watching a TV channel each month and individual’s net income, net worth, blood test (hinting at mental and physical health). Can good TV channels about science, health, technology, and medicine make one more successful and prosperous? Do prosperity and health improve with more hours spent watching a particular TV channel? What is the optimal number of hours that one should spend watching TV in regard to net worth and health?

: Amount of money spent on plastic and cosmetic surgeries and net worth and physical and mental health.
: Amount of money spent on the pharmaceuticals each year and health and household net worth.
: Amount of money representing non-revolving and revolving debt and measures of health.

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I postulate that there is an inverse relationship between fertility and likeability and fertility and persecutability. When a person is social and likable his mental health may be sound and good. When mental health problems are suspected the person is often withdrawn, unlikable, and unsocial. Social conduct problems may be reasons for rejection and being ostracized. Via a yet unknown mechanism a person may have his fertility lowered if he becomes an object of rejection and persecution.

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I postulate that there is a relationship between intellectual adaptability and aptitude and one’s place of residence in a state with no gun control. There might be a relationship between total number of years of education per capita (adjusted for age) and number of guns owned by residents of that state. There may be a relation between a number of patents registered by individuals per capita, number of Ph’D per capita, and number of software engineers, life/social/physical scientists per capita and number of guns registered in the state per capita. If the relation holds and we can see that there are fewer more educated people in the states with more guns then it would mean two things: 1| Intelligent people who have a desire to attain more years of education and receive prestigious jobs have little desire to settle in states with no gun control and 2| People who have a desire for no gun control have no desire to attain more years of education, patent inventions, become biologists or software engineers.

People who abstain from eating fish do not receive iodine. Iodine is essential for optimal neurocognitive processing and signaling. People suffer from nutritionally-induced mental retardation if they abstain from eating fish and receive no iodine. Iodine deficiency is not permanent and can be reversed. If iodine is present in the diet up to a certain limit the intelligence is optimal unless mental or physical ailment is suspected.
Bottle-feeding is associated with lower IQ in adulthood. Mother’s milk contains special naturally-occurring fatty acids that are essential for child’s neurodevelopment. Lactation and breast feeding are an important and integral part of an infant’s diet. Failure to be breastfed in infantile stage may result in a lowered IQ in adulthood (7 to 8 points deficit).

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How should people live or what should the government do?

- Do not alter your body in ways that are not natural. Do not dye your hair, wear colored contact lenses. Do not do plastic surgery, cosmetic surgery, etc.
- Do not medicate purposelessly or needlessly. Do not medicate neurological generic disorders.
- Use what is natural and organic. Do not use chemicals and materials that irritate cells or cause allergies.
- Provide alternative types of lifestyle: settled life, city life, town life, village life, nomadic life.
- Talk science, business, technology, and medicine to advance your country. How much of a person’s conversation is devoted to the discussion of these four topics.
- Provide variety and selection of goods and services that do not overwhelm. Too much is no good and too little does not satisfy.
- Make example of good behavior, reward pro-social acts
- Reach a milestone where citizens of your country feel happy for one another’s well being.
- Individualism vs. cooperation as work ethics. Provide a business environment where employees of certain companies can complete with each other within a company yet others cooperate. Think of which business sectors where cooperation between employees of a company is most desired. Think where individualism and competitive behavior are most sought after.
- Set a CEO's compensation to be as high as the best performing employee plus a fixed amount. No one in the company can make more than the CEO. Disclose CEO pay packages to the public.
- Do not keep secrets that may endanger the public.
- To fight corruption and sophisticated crime develop strategies that are known to the offenders. Tactics that are known to the offenders but cannot be exploited even when knowledge about them is held are ideal.
- Take away money from people who constitute as relatives to people who steal and cheat. Make people who steal pay their relatives back what was taken from them. Relatives will hold self-interest in bringing their thievery members to good working order so that they can earn and pay back the debt.

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A technique to screen for white-collar crime offenders:
Point-scoring system lets you score points based on the red flags. The more red flags there are the more likely the person is a white-collar criminal. Criminals may do and may not do certain things. Depending on the combination of things that you do not do and do allows you to build a more accurate profile of a sophisticated criminal. If presence of factors that indicate criminality is counted to be high and absence of factors that indicate innocence is high then the ratio may approach a certain number. It is a good idea to build realistic ratios from the real world data.

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On Human Perspectives and World Political Systems:

In a society characterized as socialistic, fascistic, autocratic, and communistic individuals have highly similar perspectives. In an environment with highly standardized uniform products and services of limited selection and variation individuals on average have highly similar perspectives. Limited publications espousing individual or government opinion, thought patterns, reasoning, moral and philosophical, and religious teachings lead to an uniformity in perspectives. A perspective is individual’s understanding of how the world around him works and operates. Humans develop perspectives and act based on the convictions that are part of their perspectives. Perspectives help people develop a mental representation of the world. How are perspectives formed? They are formed by discriminatorily reading information sources, listening to people that are part of your social network, watching footage or video depicting various scenes. Engaging your sensory organs is the means by which perspectives are developed. What you choose to read online, in magazines, books, journals, what you choose to watch on TV, who you choose to socialize with are determined by the perspectives you initially hold. How can you get inside a person’s head? To get inside a person’s head in order to understand that man’s perspectives requires following this man's lifestyle for a specific period of time. An investigator who tries to examine someone’s perspective must read, watch, and listen to the same sources as the person he is studying.
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How services are created:
It is apparent that some businesses provide services to take care of human needs. Each service takes care of human need that can be represented as a verb or an action.

Examples:
Remembering – Museums
Watching – Video and TV
Fighting – boxing, martial arts
Reading – books, magazines, newspapers
Learning – schools, colleges, universities
Dancing – night clubs, discos
Singing – karaoke
Having sex – prostitution and sex work
Studying – textbooks, manuals
Enjoying nature – parks, gardens, aquariums, lagoons
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Talking to ancestors.
Is it possible that there exists neural memory mechanism in humans that allows people to conjure up images and dialogues of their ancestors? In some cultures people claim to have the capacity to communicate to ancestors. This may be an ancient behavior. This is either delusional thinking or true neural memory. With neural memory people can have a dialogue with their ancestors all in their heads. People can become like their ancestors if they wish to. All they have to do is activate that brain region.

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Studies and Inventions to create:

A. There is a strong need to find an estimation formula for Biomass. It is of significant importance to come up with a formula for biomass that would enable governments and organizations to tailor conservation and preservation of species strategies throughout the world using sound science. Business activity may change depending on what the negative and positive effects on species diversity and biomass are. Important questions must be answered in regard to invasive species and the biomass they represent. Is the increase in biomass represented by invasive species greater than the decrease in biomass represented in native species? What does it mean? Is it desirable to humans or nature or both? Is this a scientific question? How does human activity such as farming and industrial development affect biomass? What about infectious epidemics that affect various species? Factors such as human land use, number of humans living, business and economic activity, energy and water use, mining, public health and mental health of populations, etc all may have negligible or significant effects on biomass. It is reasonable to assume that human land use may mean encroachment on natural habitats and decrease in species abundance and diversity. Water and energy use and carbon dioxide can be significant driving forces behind biomass diminishment because they are clear measures of human business, economic, and physical activity. Which portion in variation in biomass do land, water, and energy use explain? Can carbon dioxide emissions impact species abundance? An ingenious study is needed to gain better understanding how to transform a barren land that was previously used by humans into a lush greenery.

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B. A study is needed to identify what makes one inorganic chemical toxic and noxious to a biological cell and another one not. Carncerginicity and allergic reactions experienced by humans when they come in contact with chemicals is known and was documented. What influences this reaction? How can chemicals be sort out? Developing a highly functioning framework will allow effective sorting, regulation, and management of chemicals. There needs to be attention paid to the chemicals that are proven harmful to humans and animals. Is it possible that the chemical formula itself holds clues as to what turns some chemicals into noxious and toxic compounds? Perhaps, it is the number of atoms of carbon, oxygen, or hydrogen that makes the difference? Odd or even? What about combinations of chemical elements or the total number of atoms in the formula? Perhaps, the compounds that have even number of carbon and hydrogen but an odd number of total atoms in the formula are what makes one chemical destructive to life… It will take creative thought and knowledge of chemistry to do the guesswork. Odd or even should be the key here. Everything else should be done by a computer algorithm.
C. There is a problem with computer motherboard and PC cases finding a common language. It turns out that most motherboards have on, off, sleep, hibernate and other features installed that may seem confusing. Jumper settings do not always work smoothly with PC cases. A user may inadvertently connect the wrong USB connector from the pc case into the wrong motherboard jumper. This may lead the device connected to the USB port to malfunction. An idea is to allow jumper settings practically ‘find’ each other without much thought or deliberation going into it. Perhaps, the coloring of the jumpers should be invented. Some may try getting different sizes or shapes for jumpers and connectors. Some may play with sounds or light indicators. The best design wins.
D. Document management software is needed that can transform a collection of reports, studies, papers, and other text documents into a highly structured and manageable virtual work environment. The software should have the ability to understand and lift up the documents or ebooks’ author, date of publication, size, etc. It should sort out the paper and place it, for example, into a logical place on the computer system. You should gain the ability to sort documents by type of publication, type of document (scientific paper, manuscript, homework, notes, reports, etc). A preview in a small window should be made available. Documents must be made searchable through the program.
E. It is highly important to have on the market well functioning personal finance software. Effective finance software should be capable of performing the following tasks: budgeting, spending and saving comparison, detailed portfolio analysis, risk management, parenthood planning, large-ticket purchase planning, financial and monetary transaction management, financial instrument information, etc.
Portfolio analysis may include calculating portfolio’s beta, standard deviation and expected return on the portfolio. It would be of value to allow the user to have a bird’s eye view of how the user is doing in relation to other individuals in his city, state, region or country based on the demographical characteristics entered into the program. The data should be glanced from the census report supplied by the US government. The application may also include comparison based on the historical data and not just the current one.

Risk metric ratios:
Credit limit on credit cards to income
Debt to net income
Debt to net worth
Anticipated debt to anticipated income and net worth

Features:
A. Application should allow you to create an inventory of your household.
B. Value of depreciation of goods – calculated as amount paid minus amount you would receive if you recycle or sell to another person
C. Registration of warranty and comprehensive list of warranty related information from each goods-making company (updatable, contacts, shipping costs to send back, etc)
D. Shipping –cost estimator – just the destination and the deportation points and the shipping method and company. (Shipping costs per unit of weight must be updatable) (USPS, FedEx, UPS).
E. Parenthood planning – projected monthly and quarterly costs associated with raising a child. Increasing nutrition costs, baby stuff costs, toys costs, health care costs, maternal care costs, etc.
F. Large-ticket purchasing – estimation of costs associated with large-ticket purchases (autos, homes, apartments, home appliances, renovation, etc).
G. Estimation of renovating a house or an apartment – # of rooms, paint, floor, tools, windows, etc.
H. Estimation of a replacement of a product or upgrade
I. Test your financial and money knowledge through multiple-choice quizzes
J. Look up rent prices for houses and apartments by area, house. What does it cost to purchase and acquire – number of rooms, bedrooms, bathrooms, etc.


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The Ultimate Chronology:

Human Parameters should be mapped chronologically. One parameter may be devoted to financial sciences and another to the economics and another to invention and technological development. An entry in one parameter may compliment an entry in another. It can also invalidate or disprove something from occurring or taking place. The parameter titled “events” is the most complicated to fill due to its uncertainty.

Human Parameters:

Biological Sciences (biology, genetics, evolution, paleontology, anatomy, neuroscience, etc)
- Techniques invented, fields and disciplines and sub-disciplines created, most influential people involved. Theories, hypothesis, and discoveries from the beginning to the finish of an idea (refutations included)

Physical Sciences (climatology, physics, astronomy, etc)
- Techniques invented, fields and disciplines and sub-disciplines created, most influential people involved. Theories, hypothesis, and discoveries from the beginning to the finish of an idea (refutations included)

Social Sciences (sociology, anthropology, archaeology, cultural psychology, etc)
- Techniques invented, fields and disciplines and sub-disciplines created, most influential people involved. Theories, hypothesis, and discoveries from the beginning to the finish of an idea (refutations included)
Financial evolution and its practice

- Financial instruments techniques, methods that are created from earliest times to the present.

Economics and its practice
- Economic theories, economic platform, hypothesis, international and national trading history, etc from Paleolithic times to modern age.

Companies and Corporations
- Names of important and influential companies. It can be destructive companies and it can be life-saving companies that have had major impact on human life. From first companies to modern companies.

Inventions, Technology, Techniques, Methods
- Inventions and Patents that were turned into highly acclaimed products and designs.
- Techniques that led to the evolution and development of services

Fashion Trends
- What people wear and major trends: shapes, color, etc

War and Diplomacy
- who wages war, who loses and wins, what weapons used, techniques, tactics, strategies
- (Tactics and strategies that are not developed yet or known cannot be used to wage war, weapons made of materials not known how to handle and use cannot be created and used for war waging, etc).

Law, Its History and Practice
- Major evolution of law systems – human rights, international law, national law, tort law, property law, human rights from prehistory to modern age.

Human Events
- What happened and who was involved from the beginning to the end. Events should be important.

Human Development
- Physiological development from early hominid times to the present (anthropology, evolutionary anatomy and physiology). Brain size, morphology, body structure and biomechanics from earliest humans to modern ones.
- Mental and behavioral development from anthropological and psychological perspectives. This would include mental capacities of ancient ancestors.

Animal Evolution and Its Activity
- Animals evolve and their evolutionary trajectories should be mapped.
- Organisms act out and, for example, kill humans and cause diseases and famines. This would include infectious bacteria and non-organisms such as viruses

Literature
– Books and literary works that transform the way people think, behave, and reason or live. It can be good or bad. It can be fiction or non-fiction.

Music and Movies
- Musical trends from earliest times to present. Major composers or singers. This field should be checked against the musical instruments to see if music can be produced in accordance to the law of musical instrument evolution and availability.

- Cinema and Movies of major importance. Cinema is a relatively recent human endeavor.

Major international criminals, criminal gangs, rebel groups, and terrorists
- Who they are and what they do
- Solved and unsolved crimes

Associations and organizations from earliest times to the present
- What functions do they serve? Who heads them? Money involved? Etc.

Propaganda
- Messages and lessons, calls for actions – this can be anything from an ancient manuscript to a printed pamphlet



Color coding:
- Entries should be color coded. The timeline is temporal and has time scales from Hadean period to modern age. The beginning is sparse and the present age is full of data. That is how it should look in theory.
- Each element in a parameter has the capacity to invalidate another element.

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Ideas for a TV Channel:
Shopping backwards:
The main idea behind the show is to shop backwards. The show starts when a player enters the store backwards with a large cart full of products. He has to locate the right shelves and put each product back while continuing walking backwards. He has to complete the entire course. At the end the player has to end up with an empty cart while leaving the store backwards. The show organizers then display the video for viewing to viewers from end to finish by slowly rewinding the tape without sacrificing quality. Viewers can watch how realistic the player’s shopping was based on what they saw on the tape.

The Food War:
Two women who are professional cooks compete for food ingredients. The total number of food ingredients is, perhaps, 80. Once the dispute is settled through an elaborate competition game the cooks begin to cook. They must be shown cooking on television and they have to use as many ingredients as possible but do not have to use all of them. They then finish cooking. Two male twins are supposed to score the meals on a rating scale. The person who gets the best marks and uses the greatest number of food ingredients wins the contest.

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An addiction should be defined as performing an action that lasts longer than usual by much. This means that addictions are behaviors that in regard to duration fall in the upper quartile of durations. Addictions may or may not impact health negatively. Therefore, addiction can also be defined as activation of a particular brain region for long periods of time continually on daily, weekly, or monthly basis.

Addictions:
A. Shopping
B. Internet Browsing
C. Masturbation and Ananism
D. Sex
E. Reading
F. Watching TV
G. Listening to music
H. Eating
I. Praying

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Fair Costs and Prices System:

Types of Costs to Manufacture a Product (From Airbus to a teaspoon):

- Labor (Healthcare, wages, bonuses, stock options, profit sharing, employee match)
- Energy (Oil)
- Supplies (chemicals, glass, stone, sand, steel, iron, etc)
- Depreciation (to machinery, tools)
- Storage (warehouse)
- Food for Workers
- Shipping Charges

Notes:

- Hourly Benefits = All total benefits divided by the total number of hours worked per period
- Depreciation and maintenance cost per 1 item made (Total depreciation divided by the number of products made)
- Storage cost per 1 item made (total storage cost divided by the number of products made)
- Cost of food to feed a worker in order to produce 1 item
- Cost of shipping to ship 1 item to its final destination (weight times shipping charge per pound)
- Energy to produce 1 item (price per kilowatt times number of kilowatts used for construction of the item)
- Cost of supplies to produce 1 item
- Cost of services offered by other companies that help you create the product or offer service (total divided by the number of products produced per period.

Once all the costs per 1 item are figured out the true cost of the product is known. The company can charge any price for the product once the costs are known. The overhead is the profit.

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